Year: 2013

“Crude prices in NY and London continued to fall last week. In both markets oil is down about $8 a barrel since mid-February with NY futures closing a $90.68 on Friday and Brent futures closing at $110.40. The fall was precipitated by a litany of concerns over the course of the global economy – manufacturing slowing in China; unemployment rising in Europe; the Italian political situation; personal income dropping in the US; the beginning of the $85 billion sequester; the dollar strengthening against the euro; US oil production climbing to 7.12 million b/d; and crude inventories up another million barrels…”

“After 9 weeks of advances which took oil prices from $87 to $99 a barrel in NY and $104 to $119 in London, prices broke on Wednesday and Thursday taking NY oil down $4.58 a barrel and London down $3.99. A modest bounce on Friday closed out the week with NY at $93.13 and London at $114.10. While much of the price drop was a reaction to previous gains, the EIA reported on Thursday that US crude inventories had gained 4.1 million barrels the week before last and were now at the highest level in more than 30 years for the time of year…”

“Oil prices climbed for most of last week with NY oil approaching recent highs of $98 a barrel on Thursday and Brent trading around $118. On Friday prices fell on profit taking and bad economic news from Europe. After the selloff, NY closed at $95.86 a barrel and London at $117.66. New York gasoline futures, however, were strong all week closing at $3.13 a gallon – up 15 percent since mid-January. Most analysts have trouble seeing oil prices moving much higher, short of a major reduction in exports, as demand in 2013 seems to be heading lower in the EU, flat in North America, and uncertain in Asia. The major forecasters – IEA, EIA, and OPEC — are mixed as to what will happen in the rest of the year.”

“Brent oil continued the climb that has been going on since early December, closing on Friday at $118.90. Prices are now up nearly $18 a barrel in the last two months. New York crude ended a couple of dollars lower for the week at $95.72 on weak US demand, the continuing glut at Cushing, and rising US stockpiles. A major refinery in Illinois which is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in late February added to fears of an increasing glut in the Midwest.”

“Oil prices continued to rise last week with Brent crude closing at $116.76 on Friday, only a few dollars below the highs set in the spring of 2011 and 2012. New York crude, which is still held down by the glut of tight oil and Canadian crude in the Midwest along with seasonal refinery maintenance, closed at $97.89 on Friday, up $1.89 for the week as compared to the $3.84 increase in the price of Brent.”

“New York oil futures fluctuated around $96 dollars a barrel last week, at one point nearly touching $97, closing on Friday at $95.87. This was the seventh weekly gain in a row for NY futures and the longest run of weekly price gains since 2009. Brent crude which now is up $4 a barrel in the last two weeks, and up $10 a barrel since early November, closed at $113.28. Numerous factors were seen as shaping the markets last week. There is optimism among traders that the US, Chinese, Japanese, and German economies are doing better. The Euro strengthened a bit. US jobless claims were down. The China’s purchasing managers index was up.”

“In the January issue of its monthly Oil Market Report, the IEA forecasts that the world oil market will become much tighter than expected in the year ahead due to recent reductions in Saudi and Iraqi exports and increases in Chinese demand. The Agency now expects that global demand for oil will increase by about 900,000 barrels in 2013. This forecast coupled with better economic news from China and at least a temporary settlement of the US’s debt cap crisis sent oil prices up about $2 a barrel on Thursday to a new 17-week high…”

“After a quiet start to the week, crude futures climbed to a three-month high on Thursday after Beijing’s export data showed an increased demand for Chinese goods. On Friday, however, Beijing released data showing inflation rising, largely due to the impact of record cold weather on food prices, sending crude prices down again. Analysts feared that China would turn to fighting inflation rather than stimulating the economy, thus reducing the demand for oil. At week’s end NY futures were down to $93.56 a barrel, and London was down to $110.55…”

“Oil trading was dominated last week by machinations in the US Congress and the prospects for the US economy. During the week, however, NY futures sustained the biggest weekly gain in three months on the euphoria surrounding the settlement of the fiscal cliff. NY oil closed Friday at $93.09 while Brent closed at $111.31…”