“Recent data releases continue to show a phenomenal pace of recovery in global oil demand.”
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy After rebounding from recent lows on Wednesday, oil traded around $84 for the remainder of the week. As has been the Continue Reading
Peak oil activists and the mass media have had a rocky relationship. Activists often don’t understand how the media works and can’t fathom why reporters and editors are not better informed about energy issues. Those working in the media are constrained by the interests of their advertisers, their corporate owners and the necessity of focusing on ratings and circulation.
You know, knowing the nature of the disease is usually an essential first step to finding a cure. And so too, it is with a recession. Knowing the true nature Continue Reading
“With price increases largely reflecting scarcity in export supply, global competition for securing foodstuffs is set to intensify.”
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Oil prices, which had been falling for a week on concerns about the Irish debt crisis and Chinese inflation, stabilized around Continue Reading
(Note: There is so much bad news in telling the Peak Oil story that we thought we would lighten things up a bit with a little satire. Ed.) Paris – Continue Reading
View the videos from the 2010 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference in Washington, D.C. http://www.aspo.tv
“Recovery of deepwater drilling in US waters will be very slow and will take several years.”
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy It was an unusually active week with oil prices setting a new two-year high above $88 on Thursday and then plunging Continue Reading
To everyone’s collective enormous relief, the IEA’s 2010 World Outlook reassured the world that while oil prices may rise and conventional crude oil production may have peaked in 2006, we don’t have to worry about dramatic, longer-term energy-price increases. IEA predicts a gradual creep towards $113 per barrel by 2035. By 2015, we do have to worry that we might get up to $90 per barrel, with the high costs that imposes on ordinary people and the burdensome effects on the economy, but we’ve got five years, we are assured.
“Without a government, there’s no stability, and without stability, it is not easy to invest,”
A small subset of the public (1) believes in both global warming and peak oil and (2) takes the corollary view that only believing in at least one of the Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy A variety of developments sent oil prices 6.7 percent higher last week closing on Friday just below $87 a barrel. In Continue Reading
2010 ASPO-USA Conference – Washington, DC
Rear Admiral Lawrence S. Rice, Director of Strategy and Policy, U.S. Joint Forces Command
Study: United States Joint Force Command – The Joint Operating Environment 2010
“Politics and economic activity in Peru is better than in other Latin American countries such as Venezuela.”
It was a rather quiet week with oil hovering around $82 a barrel and closing on Friday at $81.43. Large US crude inventories continue to keep a lid on prices as does the lack of much positive news on the economy. The oil markets continue to move along with the US dollar which is currently mired in the debate over whether another round of quantitative easing (QE2) by the Federal Reserve would lead to faster economic growth. Traders are concerned that QE2 could lead to a still weaker dollar and higher oil prices unrelated to the fundamentals of supply and demand. During the week the US dollar fell to a 15 year low against the yen.
France’s oil port strike was called off on Friday so that refining and oil product distribution should be back to normal in a week or two. At one point the strike had forced the shutdown of one of Switzerland’s refineries which receives its crude by pipeline from France.
At the ASPO Conference in early October 2007, Robert Hirsch presented his view of the impact of peak oil on the economy and society. While most of his assertions are readily supportable, the historical record is nevertheless perhaps more nuanced and deserves consideration in thinking about future events.
To begin with, there have been to date arguably two peak oil recessions. The first of these, the period of the Iran-Iraq war after 1979, was artificial. Saudi Arabia decided to defend a high oil price with production restrictions, despite the fact that production capacity was largely adequate to meet global needs. As a consequence, oil production fell in a pattern similar to that which we might expect after peak oil. By contrast, the oil shock of 2008 was arguably the first, true global peak oil recession. Unlike the shocks of the 1970’s, there were no supply disruptions. The world simply ran out of spare capacity. While the oil supply did not peak in the accounting sense, for the first time, it was structurally unable to meet growing global demand. These two periods, then, tell us something about the future course of oil shocks resulting from peak oil.