Month: May 2015

“Multinationals like Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Weatherford have shed tens of thousands of skilled workers that have centuries of combined experience. If history is our guide – and it’s a good guide—most of these people will find employment in other industries and never return, even when the text message, “When can u come back to work?” flashes on their mobiles… To be sure, workforce and equipment can be built up again in the future, but it will take time and money. What wounded service company is likely to invest in new parts and hire back people unless they are convinced that activity is going to be sustained?” 
 
Peter Tertzakian – chief energy economist and managing director, ARC Financial

“Despite Europe’s desire to loosen its reliance on Russian gas, the shale revolution has turned out to be a dud. Difficult geological conditions, fierce environmental opposition, cumbersome regulations and a bloody war in Ukraine have conspired to quash investors’ enthusiasm and wear down their patience. The collapse of oil prices to less than $50 a barrel in March was the final straw because the cost of much of Europe’s gas, including Russian imports, is linked to crude.” 
 
Bloomberg News 5-12-15

“The large oil frackers have spent $80 billion more than they have received from selling oil. Wall Street greased those skids by underwriting debt and equity securities that allowed them to garner billions in fees. The banks are clearly incentivized to enable the frack addicts. What’s less obvious is whether investors are furnished a clear analysis of the returns these companies actually generate. 
 
“As oil prices rose, it seemed like the frackers should have been drowning in cash. But none of them generated excess cash flow, not even when oil was at $100 a barrel. In fact, the opposite was true. 
 
“Recently, oil prices have declined. Because the frackers have less revenue, they’ve been forced to cut Capex. Though they will continue to spend more dollars than they take in, production is no longer growing.  A business that burns cash and doesn’t grow isn’t worth anything. 
 
“On the $36 of revenues per BOE [barrel of oil equivalent], Pioneer [Pioneer Natural Resources] spends about $14 on field operating expenses and another $6 on corporate expenses. Subtract the historical $28 of Capex, and Pioneer loses $12 for every BOE it develops. That’s like using $50 bills to counterfeit $20s.” 
 
All of the above is from a recent presentation by David Einhorn, cofounder of Greenlight Capital

“The U.S. oil production decline has begun. It is not because of decreased rig count. It is because cash flow at current oil prices is too low to complete most wells being drilled…The decrease in well completions provides additional evidence that the true break-even price for tight oil plays is between $75 and $85 per barrel.” 
 
Art Berman, independent consulting geologist