The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 16 November 2020

Futures fell 2.4 percent in New York on Friday, closing at $40.13, but still posted the largest weekly gain in a month as optimism about a potential Covid-19 vaccine jolted markets earlier in the week. While global oil markets rallied on the latest vaccine trial results, they are unlikely to feel any significant economic benefits until well into next year, the IEA said Thursday. The agency darkened its outlook for crude consumption in the months ahead, citing resurgent Covid-19 infection rates in the US and Europe. It now expects demand for 2020 to fall by 8.8 million barrels a day this year—400,000 barrels a day more than its last forecast.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 9 November 2020

Expectations over OPEC+ delaying its planned output increase in January and a post-election rally in equities helped crude prices with a strong start last week. But a string of renewed lockdowns in Europe and record case counts in the US kept any upward price momentum in check. Brent crude settled down $1.48, or 3.62 percent, at $39.45 a barrel on Friday and West Texas Intermediate dropped $1.65, or 4.25 percent to $37.14 a barrel.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 2 November 2020

Oil posted its largest monthly drop since March as renewed lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus threatened to upend a shaky demand recovery. Futures fell 1.1 percent in New York on Friday to end the week below $36 a barrel, taking their cue from a broader market selloff and the worst week for US stocks since March. Simultaneously, the US posted a record surge in daily coronavirus infections, while new restrictions in Europe could drive the region toward another recession.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 26 October 2020

Oil: Prices finished lower last week in anticipation of a surge in Libya’s crude supply and concerns about rising coronavirus cases in the US and Europe. Crude prices sank after Libya’s National Oil Corp said it lifted force majeure on exports from key ports and output would reach 1 million b/d in four weeks. In New York, futures settled at $39.85 a barrel, and Brent crude settled at $41.77. For the week, US crude futures lost 2.5 percent, and Brent dropped 2.7 percent.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 19 October 2020

Oil: Futures posted a small weekly gain on signs that demand is picking up in China even as a new wave of coronavirus infections casts a shadow over the global market. Brent futures settled at $42.93 a barrel, up 0.2 percent for the week, and New York futures settled at $40.88 a barrel. A panel of officials from OPEC+ discussed their worst-case scenario during a virtual monthly meeting on Thursday. The cartel fears a prolonged second wave of the pandemic, and a jump in Libyan output could push the oil market into surplus for much of 2021, a gloomier outlook than just a month ago.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 12 October 2020

Oil: Prices gained 9 percent last week, settling at $42.85 in London and $40.60 in New York — the first increase in three weeks and the biggest weekly rise for Brent since June. Futures climbed earlier last week due to concerns about the strike in Norway and hurricane Delta headed for the US Gulf Coast. Norwegian oil firms struck a bargain with labor on Friday, ending a 10-day strike that had threatened to cut the country’s oil and gas output

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 5 October 2020

Oil fell last week in New York to $37.05 and Brent plummeted to $39.27, after President Trump’s positive Covid-19 diagnosis combined with labor market weakness led to heightened concerns over an economic recovery. The coronavirus is resurgent again in Europe and hasn’t been brought under control in big economies such as India, leading to forecasters scaling back their estimates for when oil demand will get back to pre-virus levels. Concerns are increasing that global crude supplies and demand could again fall more out of balance.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 21 September 2020

Prices climbed $4 a barrel last week, closing at about $43 in London and $41 in New York. They were lifted by hurricane Sally in the Gulf of Mexico, which took more than 500,000 b/d offline and left production 30 percent below normal by week’s end. A second storm is already forming in the western Gulf, which threatens to lower output still further.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 14 September 2020

Oil: Futures posted their first back-to-back weekly loss since April’s rout with the end of the summer driving season and concern about OPEC’s production compliance weighing on prices. New York futures fell 6.1 percent last week, coinciding with a fall in US equities. The market was under pressure all week, starting with Saudi Arabia’s surprise move to cut prices on oil it supplies to Asia by $1.00. The second wave of selling pressure was fueled by a surprise increase in US crude stockpiles as the pandemic continues to erode demand for fuels. West Texas Intermediate settled at $37.33 a barrel and Brent settled at $39.83 a barrel –down 6.6 percent for the week.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 7 September 2020

Oil: New York futures settled near two-month lows after gains in the dollar reduced the appeal of commodities priced in US currency and concerns about over-supply mount. Prices were pressured by extended declines in the US equities market and by a report showing US job growth slowed further in August as financial assistance from the government ran out. October futures settled $1.60 lower at $39.77 on Friday, while London’s Brent was down $1.41 to settle at $42.66.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 31 August 2020

Oil: Prices rose for a fourth week in a row as the US Gulf Coast refineries began restarting, though gains were capped as investors shifted their focus from hurricane Laura toward the slowing rebound in consumption. While Laura was one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to hit Louisiana, facilities in southeast Texas avoided the worst of the storm, allowing infrastructure there to start the recovery process immediately.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 24 August 2020

Oil: The oil futures market has been trading in a narrow range for weeks with crude propped up by inventory drawdowns and high OPEC compliance with its production cut. Price gains have been limited by demand concerns prompted by the continuing spread of the coronavirus. The markets closed slightly lower last week with New York futures at $42.34 and London at $44.35.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 17 August 2020

Oil: Prices squeezed out a small gain for the second straight week, but uncertainty around the US-China trade deal and fears of a resurgent pandemic limited the price rally. The International Energy Agency expects crude oil demand this year to be 8.1 million b/d lower than it was in 2019. It is a downward demand revision of 140,000 b/d in its latest Oil Market Report. Hopes are dimming for a stimulus package to relieve the US economy anytime soon, and coronavirus cases continue to increase globally.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 10 August 2020

Oil: Prices edged up to the highest since March last week on a larger-than-expected inventory draw, a slightly improved US jobs report, and hopes for a new stimulus package from Washington. However, fears of a second wave of COVID-19, increasing US-China tensions, and uncertainty about the US stimulus caused crude prices to retreat to a close of $41 in New York and $44 in London.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 3 August 2020

Oil posted a small gain in July, boosted by a steadily weakening dollar and OPEC’s restraint. Deep output curbs by OPEC+ have helped futures rebound from their plunge below zero in April, yet the unprecedented cuts will ease this month. US crude inventories have shown signs of shrinking and are currently sitting at their lowest since April.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 20 July 2020

Oil prices edged lower on Friday as concerns increased about the surge in coronavirus cases sapping fuel demand while major crude-producing nations report sharp increases in output. The US reported at least 75,000 new COVID-19 cases on Thursday, a daily record. Spain and Australia reported their steepest daily jumps in more than two months, while cases continued to soar in India and Brazil. Consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels and fuel purchases are falling again as infections rise. Brent crude futures settled at $43.08, and West Texas Intermediate settled at $40.54. Both contracts were little changed from a week earlier.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 13 July 2020

The resurgence of coronavirus cases in parts of the world is “casting a shadow” over the oil market’s nascent recovery, the International Energy Agency warned last week. “In some countries, the accelerating number of Covid-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control. The risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside.” Oil prices fell on Thursday on an unexpected increase in US stocks, but then rebounded on Friday as Gilead Sciences Inc. said its remdesivir treatment cut Covid-19 mortality risk by 62 percent. The markets closed down a bit on Friday with NY futures at $40.55 and London at $43.24.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 6 July 2020

Crude hit four-month highs on Thursday, aided by a tightening market and a better-than-expected US jobs report. The caveat is that the jobs survey took place before the latest Covid-19 wave and the associated business closures. Analysts still expect oil to face resistance to any further gains. On Friday, the bearish sentiment came back and halted the rally. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 0.8% to $40.32 a barrel, and Brent crude dipped 0.8% to $42.80 a barrel.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 29 June 2020

Oil posted its second weekly loss for the month as a surge in US coronavirus cases casts doubts on the market’s prospects for recovery. New York futures closed at $38 and London at $41 on Friday. The price slump comes just days after NY oil closed above $40 for the first time since early March and following a run of weekly gains that lifted oil from its historic plunge below zero in April. For the immediate future, the pandemic course seems to be in control of the oil markets. If the increasing number of cases continues to swamp medical facilities, it is likely the renewed shutdowns will lower demand again.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 22 June 2020

New York oil futures rose 2.3 percent on Friday to close at $39.75, the highest level since March 6th. The 9.6 percent increase for the week marks the seventh gain in the last eight weeks. Brent settled at $42.19. Oil traders and Saudi Aramco talked up the strength of the demand recovery in recent days, and prices for some of the world’s major oil products have begun to move higher. OPEC+ assurances that output cuts would happen this time contributed to higher prices.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 15 June 2020

Oil futures fell by some 8 percent last Thursday, before closing out a quiet Friday at $36.26 in New York and $38.73 in London. Over the previous six weeks, prices have been climbing due to the OPEC+ and US shale production cuts, and the easing of pandemic lockdowns in China, Europe, and North America. The sharp price drop on Thursday was caused, in part, by an increase in US crude stockpiles to record highs, a grim Federal Reserve outlook for the US economy, and reports that the coronavirus epidemic is spreading rapidly in some parts of the US.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 8 June 2020

Oil prices posted a sixth weekly gain in London, more than doubling to $42.30 a barrel since April as demand recovers from the lockdowns. NY futures closed at 39.55 on Friday, up $2.14 for the day. The price jump came after the US Labor Department reported that US non-farm payrolls increased by 2.5 million jobs in May, far exceeding market expectations for a fall of more than 7 million jobs. Later it was learned that the Labor Department’s May survey had methodological problems arising from many surveyed workers not knowing whether they were “unemployed” or just temporarily furloughed from their regular jobs.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 1 June 2020

Prices: Futures were volatile last week with prices bouncing between $31 and $35 a barrel in response to the latest news. Oil closed out May on Friday with a record monthly gain of 88 percent on hopes demand for oil would continue to rise as economies reopen and crude production continues to fall. The status of the US-China trade agreement is in doubt as relations continue to deteriorate and resurgence of the coronavirus as lockdowns are lifted will be a significant factor in the movement of oil prices during the next few weeks.

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The Energy Bulletin Weekly – 26 May 2020

The four-week run of climbing crude prices continued through Wednesday, but prices fell on Thursday and Friday as doubts arose over the prospects for China’s economy and rising tensions with the US over the virus, the trade deal, and Hong Kong. Beijing said on Friday that it would not publish a growth target for 2020, casting doubts as to how quickly demand for oil will revive. Futures prices closed Friday above $33 in New York and $36 in London.

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