Author: Tom Whipple

“Crude prices in NY and London continued to fall last week. In both markets oil is down about $8 a barrel since mid-February with NY futures closing a $90.68 on Friday and Brent futures closing at $110.40. The fall was precipitated by a litany of concerns over the course of the global economy – manufacturing slowing in China; unemployment rising in Europe; the Italian political situation; personal income dropping in the US; the beginning of the $85 billion sequester; the dollar strengthening against the euro; US oil production climbing to 7.12 million b/d; and crude inventories up another million barrels…”

“After 9 weeks of advances which took oil prices from $87 to $99 a barrel in NY and $104 to $119 in London, prices broke on Wednesday and Thursday taking NY oil down $4.58 a barrel and London down $3.99. A modest bounce on Friday closed out the week with NY at $93.13 and London at $114.10. While much of the price drop was a reaction to previous gains, the EIA reported on Thursday that US crude inventories had gained 4.1 million barrels the week before last and were now at the highest level in more than 30 years for the time of year…”

“Oil prices climbed for most of last week with NY oil approaching recent highs of $98 a barrel on Thursday and Brent trading around $118. On Friday prices fell on profit taking and bad economic news from Europe. After the selloff, NY closed at $95.86 a barrel and London at $117.66. New York gasoline futures, however, were strong all week closing at $3.13 a gallon – up 15 percent since mid-January. Most analysts have trouble seeing oil prices moving much higher, short of a major reduction in exports, as demand in 2013 seems to be heading lower in the EU, flat in North America, and uncertain in Asia. The major forecasters – IEA, EIA, and OPEC — are mixed as to what will happen in the rest of the year.”

“Brent oil continued the climb that has been going on since early December, closing on Friday at $118.90. Prices are now up nearly $18 a barrel in the last two months. New York crude ended a couple of dollars lower for the week at $95.72 on weak US demand, the continuing glut at Cushing, and rising US stockpiles. A major refinery in Illinois which is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in late February added to fears of an increasing glut in the Midwest.”

“Oil prices continued to rise last week with Brent crude closing at $116.76 on Friday, only a few dollars below the highs set in the spring of 2011 and 2012. New York crude, which is still held down by the glut of tight oil and Canadian crude in the Midwest along with seasonal refinery maintenance, closed at $97.89 on Friday, up $1.89 for the week as compared to the $3.84 increase in the price of Brent.”

“New York oil futures fluctuated around $96 dollars a barrel last week, at one point nearly touching $97, closing on Friday at $95.87. This was the seventh weekly gain in a row for NY futures and the longest run of weekly price gains since 2009. Brent crude which now is up $4 a barrel in the last two weeks, and up $10 a barrel since early November, closed at $113.28. Numerous factors were seen as shaping the markets last week. There is optimism among traders that the US, Chinese, Japanese, and German economies are doing better. The Euro strengthened a bit. US jobless claims were down. The China’s purchasing managers index was up.”

“In the January issue of its monthly Oil Market Report, the IEA forecasts that the world oil market will become much tighter than expected in the year ahead due to recent reductions in Saudi and Iraqi exports and increases in Chinese demand. The Agency now expects that global demand for oil will increase by about 900,000 barrels in 2013. This forecast coupled with better economic news from China and at least a temporary settlement of the US’s debt cap crisis sent oil prices up about $2 a barrel on Thursday to a new 17-week high…”

“After a quiet start to the week, crude futures climbed to a three-month high on Thursday after Beijing’s export data showed an increased demand for Chinese goods. On Friday, however, Beijing released data showing inflation rising, largely due to the impact of record cold weather on food prices, sending crude prices down again. Analysts feared that China would turn to fighting inflation rather than stimulating the economy, thus reducing the demand for oil. At week’s end NY futures were down to $93.56 a barrel, and London was down to $110.55…”

“Oil trading was dominated last week by machinations in the US Congress and the prospects for the US economy. During the week, however, NY futures sustained the biggest weekly gain in three months on the euphoria surrounding the settlement of the fiscal cliff. NY oil closed Friday at $93.09 while Brent closed at $111.31…”

“This week the oil markets have been dominated by the course of negotiations in Washington over the fiscal cliff. Prices surged on Wednesday following news that President Obama was returning from vacation in an attempt to revive the stalled negotiations. By Friday’s close NY oil prices were up about 2.4 percent for the week to settle at $90.80 with London oil settling at $110.62…”

“The gradual price increases which took oil up some $4-5 a barrel in the last two weeks ended on Friday when budget negotiations in Washington broke down. This news sent prices down $1.20-$1.40 a barrel to settle at $88.66 in NY and $108.97 in London…”

“Oil traded in a narrow range last week with NY hovering around $86 a barrel and London $21 higher around $108 for most of the week. Prices climbed 84 cents in NY on Friday and $1.78 in London where Brent closed at $109.15 on the news of increased manufacturing in the US and China. NY oil has now fallen about 12 percent during 2012 due to the glut in the Midwest, while London oil has now climbed 1.6 percent this year…”

“Oil prices fell last week on bad economic news from the EU and US, the uncertainty in Washington over the “fiscal cliff” negotiations, slumping gasoline and heating oil prices, and by a weaker euro. Brent crude which on Monday was trading above $112 a barrel closed Friday at $107.02. New York crude fell about $3 a barrel during the week to close at $85.93…”

“Oil prices were little changed last week, but managed to close out November a few dollars higher than the October closing thereby registering the first monthly increase since August. New York futures ended the week at $88.91 and London at $111.23. Better economic news, including higher US GDP numbers, offset concerns about the coming “fiscal cliff” and bad economic news from the EU…”

“With the Gaza cease-fire announced Wednesday still holding, the markets were quieter later in the week. On Friday prices increased a bit due to some better economic news from Germany and a stronger dollar. Oil closed at $88.28 in NY, up about 1.6 percent for the week, and at $111.38 in London. With the spread between NY and London oil holding at around $23 a barrel, most analysts do not foresee much change in the immediate future…”

“A week that began with the markets’ attention focused on the Greek bailout, concerns about the global economy and the US’s fiscal cliff, ended with a major upswing in Middle Eastern violence which some fear could result in constraints on oil exports. For much of the week fears for the economy kept prices edging down, but on Friday as the exchanges of rocket fire and air strikes between Gaza and Israel increased, the markets moved higher with NY oil closing at $86.67 and London at $108.96…”

“The re-election of President Obama and Democratic gains in Senate seats sent oil futures in NY tumbling by $4.27 a barrel Wednesday. Behind the selloff were concerns that a divided government could take the country over the “fiscal cliff” in January reducing the demand for oil. London oil fell by a similar amount on Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, however, oil rebounded to close out the week about a dollar higher in NY at $86.07 and $109.40 in London…”

“Oil prices remained stable for most of last week with NY oil climbing a dollar or so and London oil falling about the same. On Friday however a number of factors came together to send NY oil down $2.23 a barrel to close Friday at $84.86. London also fell, closing at $105.64, down $2.53. These were the lowest settlement prices in both markets since last July. The downward pressure came in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy when it became apparent that two major refineries with a combined capacity of 308,000 b/d, which were shut down for the storm, could not resume operations immediately.”

“After falling rapidly for nearly a week, oil prices stabilized on Thursday and Friday with NY oil closing at $86.28 and London at $109.55. The two week price drop which stemmed mainly from concerns about economic prospects took NY oil down about $7 a barrel and London down some $5. By week’s end, concerns over the disruptions that Hurricane Sandy will cause to the five refineries located in its path, producing 600,000 b/d, pushed up gasoline and heating oil prices taking crude with it. Heating oil supplies in the NY area are far below normal levels so prolonged closure of refineries accompanied by colder weather will likely lead to a price surge…”

“Oil traded in a narrow range until Friday when an accumulation of economic problems ranging from weak demand, growing inventories, and a seeming lack of progress at the EU summit meeting sent prices down more than $2 a barrel. The futures market closed out the week at $90.05 a barrel in NY and $110.14 in London. Widespread pessimism about the global economy coupled with a lack of any immediate threats to Middle Eastern oil supplies are believed responsible for Friday’s decline…”

“Oil prices jumped about two dollars on Tuesday as Turkish-Syrian tensions increased, but remained relatively steady for the rest of the week with Brent closing down $1 on Friday at $114.62 a barrel and NY down to $91.86. The IEA’s new forecast of slightly lower oil demand for 2012 and 2013 helped send prices down on Friday. The IMF now is forecasting that world economic growth will be only 3.3 percent this year and 3.6 next year, adding to the pressure. Europe continues to grapple with the Greek and Spanish debt problems amid growing concerns that another global recession is in the offing…”

“It was a volatile week with oil prices falling some $3.50 a barrel on Tuesday, recovering on Wednesday, and falling again on Friday. At week’s end NY oil ended down a couple of dollars for the week at $89.88 and London ended largely unchanged at $112.02. These moves widened the spread between NY and London oil to $22.14, the widest in almost a year largely due to increasing US production. Declining production from the North Sea suggests that the Brent benchmark may become less relevant as a gauge of global oil’s value in the future. Except for the refining situation in California, oil supplies in the US are adequate, with domestic production the highest in 16 years at 6.5 million b/d, weak demand of 18.3 million b/d, and crude stockpiles up 8.4 percent from last year…”

“After a two week decline of nearly $10 a barrel, oil prices reversed last week and climbed a little on Thursday and Friday leaving NY oil at $92.19 and London at $112.39. Despite the steep decline in September, oil prices still registered the biggest quarterly increase this year on concerns that Middle Eastern problems could disrupt oil supplies. Higher gasoline prices also contributed to the increase. Friday saw an unusual short squeeze on the closing October gasoline contract in NY which sent prices up 19 cents to close at $3.34 a gallon. The sudden surge was technical in nature as one or more traders scrambled to cover short positions before the contract expired…”

“After falling by nearly $8 a barrel during trading on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, prices recovered a bit on Thursday and Friday to close at $111.42 in London and $92.89 in N.Y. The drop came after nearly 3 months of steady gains and was likely related to talk of an SPR release, assurances from the Saudis that they will keep up production, and an unexpected drop in US crude inventories on Wednesday.”

“Oil prices rose steadily last week on the expectation, then the news, that the US Federal Reserve was going to resume quantitative easing by buying $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities a month for an indeterminate period. The open-endedness of the program came as a surprise and at one point NY oil futures briefly topped $100 a barrel, but slid back to close at $99…”