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  • The IEA says global oil demand will drop by 980,000 b/d this year but will rise again by about 1 million b/d in 2010.  IEA’s Nabuo Tanaka worried that demand will snap back, starting a trend that will lead to higher prices and no spare production capacity by 2013. (2/28, #4)
  • The current financial crunch has already led to the postponement or cancellation of over $100 billion worth of oil projects in the past six months, which will aggravate the “supply pathology” when recovery begins. (2/27, #20)
  • The EIA predicted that world oil demand this year would fall by 1.17 million bpd from 2008 to 84.7 million. That would be down from peak demand of 85.9 million bpd in 2007. (2/27, #16)
  • A new Deutsche Bank analysis finds that with investment now falling, the downside risks of low oil prices to supply forecasts are increasing. The average oil price necessary to achieve good return on new development projects is now $68/bbl in Angola, $62/bbl in the US Gulf of Mexico, $60/bbl in deepwater Nigeria, and around $60/bbl in Brazil (2/28, #21)
  • BP’s oil and gas production business in the North Sea is unsustainable at current low oil prices and high costs.  The cost of developing and running oil and gas fields in the North Sea has increased 50 percent since 2004, but the oil price is now back at 2004 levels. (2/24, #16)
  • World oil production may slide rapidly over 3-4 years past 2009 due to a short burst in decline of the resource base, then reach a gentler decline regime after 2010.  Production from the super-giant and giant fields is the cornerstone of modern oil production. In the top 20, 16 of them are in decline. (2/26, #11)
  • Doubts are growing that Mexico can halt a four-year decline in crude oil production after its January oil output slumped 9.2 percent year-on-year to 2.685 million b/d, just below the 2009 target of 2.7 to 2.8 million bpd. Pemex estimates that Cantarell will end 2009 producing about 700,000 b/d, suggesting that yields will fall 14 percent from 2008. However Cantarell’s decline has accelerated steadily in the past few years and exceeded 36 percent in 2008. This trend appeared intact in January as output from the Cantarell complex fell by 34 percent year-on-year. (2/28, #9)
  • Canada exports 65 percent of its oil and 59 percent of its natural gas to the US. (2/26, #10)
  • Saudi Arabia overtook Angola to become the biggest oil supplier to China in 2008, accounting for a fifth of its supplies. China is the third-largest buyer of Saudi crude after the United States and Japan. (2/26, #4)
  • The Saudis can only cut oil production so far.  Beyond revenue concerns, the kingdom needs a minimum level of oil production to get the associated natural gas that runs its industries. (2/27, #2)
  • Chevron now expects a Nigerian plant that will convert gas to liquids (GTL) to be operational by 2012, which would be a year later than expected. (2/28, #6)
  • Chevron delayed the start of production at three Nigerian projects and raised cost estimates as much as 103 percent on some of its biggest new sources of output. The $60 million a day Chevron spent last year to search for untapped fields and expand plants failed to prevent a 3.4 percent drop in production. (2/27, #11)
  • Financially-troubled Nigeria will sell the nation’s four oil refineries to raise funds as falling crude prices widen the country’s budget deficit. The West African nation will also remove subsidies on gasoline and other petroleum products to cut expenditures. (2/28, #7)
  • Nigeria could triple its output of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in a few years if planned projects are not cancelled or delayed due to the global economic crisis. Nigeria is the fifth largest LNG producer, supplying 10 percent of the world’s supplies. (2/26, #5) [Editors’ note: this is nearly hopeless optimism.]
  • A top official from French oil major Total said that Akpo, the Nigerian deep offshore oil and gas field discovered in 2000, will go online in April as expected and begin producing 175,000 barrels a day by the end of the year. (2/27, #5)
  • Venezuela’s Rafael Ramirez, CEO of PDVSA, said that the company is engaged in negotiations to make oil contractors lower the rates they charge for services by 40 percent. PDVSA’s failure to make some previous contract payments has led to labor conflicts in different oilfields. (2/28, #8)
  • Venezuela‘s oil minister says oil prices should exceed $70 a barrel to be considered fair. The price for Venezuela’s crude now stands at $33.93 a barrel, far below the $60-a-barrel level needed to cover this year’s government budget. (2/27, #8)
  • Officials from French energy major Total SA and Russian gas giant Gazprom confirmed interest in the proposed $12-billion Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline. (2/25, #7)
  • A deal has created a joint venture between the Iraq Drilling Co. and the British Mesopotamia Petroleum Co. This is the first such joint venture in post-Saddam Iraq, and will likely be a template for future projects to bring foreign oil companies into the world’s third largest oil reserves. (2/27, #4)
  • South Korea will provide Iraq with $3.55 billion worth of infrastructure in return for oil field stakes, Iraq’s Energy Ministry said early last week. (2/25, #5)
  • Oil production from the non-OPEC-12 peaked in 2004 at 46.8 million b/d. The US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency should make official statements about declining non OPEC-12 oil production (from Russia, US, China, Mexico, Canada, Norway, Brazil, the UK, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Indonesia and India) in order to renew the focus on oil conservation and alternative energy sources. (2/24, #17)
  • US rigs exploring for or producing oil or gas declined by 57, or 4.4 percent, to 1,243, the lowest level since January 2005. The rig count has fallen for 15 out of the past 16 weeks. It peaked at over 2000 rigs in September. (2/28, #12)
  • The drop in natural gas prices has come as demand from industrial users has evaporated amid the recession and as supplies have ballooned as production in the U.S. boomed over the past year. (2/23, #3)
  • At current prices, it is no longer profitable to drill most unconventional natural gas wells. If taxes are higher, this will only make the situation worse, driving more marginal producers out of business. Even without new taxes, a decline in natural gas production is likely within two years. (2/28, #18)
  • The price of diesel fuel is falling below gasoline after two almost uninterrupted years of selling at a premium as the global recession saps demand for the world’s most-consumed transport fuel and inventories rise.  (2/23, #4)
  • Hard times have hit the once-robust US ethanol sector amid the economic recession, with as much as 15 percent of production capacity likely standing idle. Ethanol use will account for 33 percent of expected corn use in 2009/10, up from a forecast of 30 percent in the current marketing year. (2/27, #16)
  • Many companies across the European Union have abandoned or halted biofuel projects and more damage will occur if oil prices do not rise significantly in 2009. (2/25, #15)
  • General Motors capped a gloomy 2008 with a $9.6 billion loss in the fourth quarter, bringing its loss for the year to $30.9 billion. The results reflect a stunning downturn throughout the company’s global operations and raise new concern about its viability. (2/27, #13)
  • Japan last month suffered a fall of nearly 50 percent in exports, leading to the country’s worst trade deficit ever and fuelling fears that the recession will be longer and deeper than previously anticipated. (2/25, #10)
  • The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2009 contains troubling data about the future availability of food. Although insisting that the planet is capable of producing enough foodstuffs to meet the needs of a growing world population, its analysts were far less confident that sufficient food would be available at prices people could afford, especially once hydrocarbon prices begin to rise again. 2/26, #12)
  • Around the North and South Poles, icecaps are melting faster and in a more widespread manner than expected, raising sea levels and fuelling climate change, a major scientific survey showed Wednesday. (3/25, #3)
  • The worst drought in Northern China in at least half a century is crippling not only the country’s best wheat farmland, but also the wells that provide clean water to industry and to millions of people. (2/25, #9)
  • In China, Chery’s first electric car, the S18, is ready for production and is to be launched on the market at the end of this year. This is China’s second domestic brand new alternative energy car after BYD’s F3DM. (2/25, #19)
  • Portugal has become a prime spot for wave energy farms, given the coastal conditions and the government’s support for renewable energy projects. Now Portuguese energy powerhouse Energias de Portugal has signed an agreement with Seattle’s Principle Power for a deep-water floating wind farm. (2/24, #20)
  • California’s Pacific Gas and Electric said it would develop up to 500 megawatts of photovoltaic solar power projects over the next five years, its first direct investment in renewable generation in more than a decade. (2/25, #20)