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Is Business-As-Usual Likely In A Peak Oil Scenario?

Using a coupled climate and carbon cycle model is appropriate if you want to want to estimate future anthropogenic emissions from presumably vast fossil fuel resources, but such a model does not capture what might actually happen “on the ground” in the real world. A prompt transition from oil to coal-based liquids is clearly impossible, as I’m sure—I’m hopeful— Caldeira would admit.

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A Resurgence In China?

The dysfunctional symbiosis between the two countries should be a familiar story by now: Americans consume more than they produce, the Chinese produce more than they consume. Americans are spendthrift, the Chinese are frugal. The Chinese make the stuff Americans buy. Americans run large trade deficits, while the Chinese have a large trade surplus. The Chinese manipulate the value of the Renminbi (the Yuan) to keep the imbalance going. The Chinese buy our debt but will not abandon the dollar…

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The Radical Hypothesis

It is hardly an exaggeration to say that humanity has reached a fork in the road, and future generations await our decision. Our energy & economic prospects are at stake, and these two necessities are inextricably linked. At such turning points, it is natural for apprehension to cloud our judgment. We want to hang on to what we have, or improve upon it, but our uncertainty is greater than our ability to discern the long-term future. The only things that seem clear are that the future will not resemble the past, and must not resemble it.

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It's Not Black Or White

Layer upon layer of confusion pervades the discussion of why oil prices have been so volatile over the last 3 years. People often yearn for simple explanations. Some want somebody to blame, while others hold on to cherished theories. In these cases observers demand a Black Or White view of events which caricatures more complex realities.

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A Shale Gas Boom?

Will we have a shale gas boom? I’ve described the contentious argument among those who follow the natural gas industry. Generally, my sympathy lies with skeptics like Art Berman. As someone who has written extensively about peak oil, I’ve encountered the human proclivity to hype a situation far beyond any semblance to reality time and time again… Nevertheless, I’m going to say the jury is still out on this one. That’s not a cop-out, because the verdict will be in very soon, certainly within the next few years.

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