“It’s about 20C [36 degrees Fahrenheit] warmer than normal over most of the Arctic Ocean, along with cold anomalies of about the same magnitude over north-central Asia…. The extreme behavior of the Arctic in 2016 seems to be in no hurry to quit.”
Jennifer Francis, an Arctic specialist at Rutgers University
“I don’t think President Trump will have a big impact on oil demand or output. He’s made statements, but we haven’t seen any thought-out policies. We will have to wait for him to get a team in place and come up with policies.”
Mike Wittner, head of oil-market research at Societe Generale SA in New York
“We’ve long been of the opinion that demand will peak before supply. And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport.”
Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer for Royal Dutch Shell
“The oil demand growth is not coming from cars; it’s from trucks, aviation and the petrochemical industry and we don’t have major alternatives to oil products there. I don’t buy the argument that electric cars alone will cause a peak in oil demand at least in short and medium term.”
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency
“The world’s five major oil companies are “faced with the choice of managing a gentle decline by downsizing or risking a rapid collapse by trying to carry on business as usual.”
By Chatham House, a London-based think-tank, in a report from May titled “The Death of the Old Business Model.”
“On the supply side, non-OPEC supply growth has reversed into declines due to major cuts in upstream investments and the steepening of decline rates. Without investment, that trend is likely to accelerate with the passage of time to the point that many analysts are now sending warning bells over future supply shortfalls and I am in that camp.”
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, at the Oil & Money Conference in London
“I don’t quite share the same view that others have that we are somehow on the edge of a precipice. I think because we have confirmed the viability of very large resource base in North America … that serves as enormous spare capacity in the system. It doesn’t take mega-project dollars, and it can be brought online much more quickly than a 3-4 year project. Never bet against the creativity and tenacity of our industry.”
Rex Tillerson, CEO ExxonMobil, at the Oil & Money conference
“We believe that the Barnett shale offers compelling evidence that technology improvements ultimately cannot overcome geology. We believe the implication is that shale is a scarcer resource than generally considered and thus are more constructive longer-term as the world must seek a more marginal barrel to match future demand growth. That is bullish for longer-term oil price.”
“Increasing lateral length hurts all horizontal well performance as frictional losses increase and in the Barnett, optimal well length was determined by balancing reduction of fixed costs with reduced incremental production. Even correcting for lateral length, Barnett wells got worse with time. The E&P narrative is that a revolution in technology of improved completions (more sand, water, clusters, geo-steering, landing, etc.) is pushing down the cost curve. Yet we fail to see it in the most complete data record we have.”
Bernstein Research
“This discovery [Smith Bay; see Briefs below] could be really exciting for the state of Alaska. It has the size and scale to play a meaningful role in sustaining the Alaskan oil business over the next three or four decades.”
Caelus CEO Jim Musselman.
“With an oil pipeline that is three-quarters empty, this is good news for the state of Alaska.”
Alaska Governor Bill Walker
““There are few easy answers, but one thing is clear: the current trajectory of climatic change presents a strategically-significant risk to U.S. national security, and inaction is not a viable option.”
Statement by the Center for Climate and Security, a Washington-based think tank, signed by more than a dozen former senior military and national security officials
“2017 is the sweet spot for integrated companies. It took two to three years to adjust to the drop in oil prices, and a lot of the efficiencies introduced in recent years will roll into 2017 when projects kick in and free cash flow will improve.”
Lydia Rainforth, analyst with Barclays
New discoveries from conventional drilling are “at rock bottom. There will definitely be a strong impact on oil and gas supply, and especially oil.”
Nils-Henrik Bjurstroem, manager with Oslo-based consultants Rystad Energy
“…seriously, there is no exploration going on today.”
Per Wullf, CEO of offshore drilling company Seadrill Ltd.
