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(FuelFix.com) Houston — Since Congress and the President agreed last week to lift the ban on oil exports the government’s energy forecasting arm decided on Monday to highlight a recent analysis it did on the topic.
The Energy Information Agency’s conclusion: How ending the ban plays out varies with overall U.S. production projections.
A key figure identified by the EIA is about 10.6 million barrels per day. If U.S. production remains below that level, allowing exports won’t have much of an impact at all on the economy or oil and gas industry. But if production climbs above that level, oil exports could mean an additional boost to domestic production, reduced refined products exports and slightly lower gasoline prices in the U.S., according to the EIA.
The U.S. produced about 9.39 million barrels per day on average in September 2015, down from an April peak of 9.59 million barrels per day. In September 2014, production averaged 8.95 million barrels per day. Most forecasts indicate that domestic oil production will rise later in the decade as prices and demand rise, though forecasts vary on the specifics of the recovery.
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