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Last week the Financial Times published excerpts from a leaked copy of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook that will be released to the public on November 12th. Although the IEA still refuses to embrace the idea that there will be geological constraints on world oil production in the near future, it acknowledges that production from mature oil fields is declining rapidly and that investment in new production is likely to be inadequate to prevent an overall production decline.
In the Financial Times brief summary of the report, the Times notes that without “extra” investment to increase production, the natural annual rate of decline is 9.1 percent. This is a spectacularly high percentage for world oil depletion for it suggests that, without lots of new drilling, world oil production would be down to fraction of current output in a decade or so.
The IEA released a statement the day following the Times story saying that the draft which was leaked apparently was several months old and that the numbers should not be quoted or considered to be official IEA results. The IEA will release the report at a press conference in London on November 12th and at that time they will discuss the results of their research and the implications for world energy supply.