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Bad Signs, New Bubbles

Assuming the Bubble Next Time thesis is correct, where does that leave us? We will eventually get inflation rates over and above the 1-2% currently priced in. Burgeoning consumption in emerging economies will cause commodity prices will soar again as they did in the period 2003-2008:H1. The sky will be the limit for a barrel of oil. The United States economy will remain in the doldrums for many years. This is a worst of both worlds scenario. We hope for the best but in 2009, why shouldn’t we expect the worst?

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Peak Oil = Peak Demand?

This outlook might fly in Disney World, but it is clearly impossible in the Real World. This leaves CERA with a public relations problem. Not only must they disavow their fantasy forecasts, but they must also explain away the fact that world oil production will probably never exceed its July, 2008 peak.

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Items from the Mailbag:

Here in Iraq, I’ve had interesting conversations over the past few days with some of my soldiers. Those exchanges illuminate the problem we face in getting people to understand the gravity of our energy situation. The guys I was talking to are some of my better soldiers; they’re savvy, intelligent, and aware of international issues. We started talking about energy, and the issue of an eventual peak of crude oil production. Most of them didn’t have a problem conceptually understanding that there would someday be a peak and then a decline. But when it came to contemplating and understanding the consequences of that eventuality, there was intellectual disbelief. In their minds, there are too many ‘obvious’ alternative solutions.

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The Decline of the American Empire

The first step would be to acknowledge what a sorry state we’re in. Speaking with Bill Moyers back in September, Kevin Phillips didn’t think soon-to-be President Barack Obama would level with the American people about how bad things are. If the President indeed understands the depths to which we’ve sunk, he has not come clean with us—you don’t rock that boat.

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Commentary A Long Recovery for Natural Gas Price

Natural gas prices increased 39 percent from a 6 ½ -year low of $3.19/MMBtu on April 27 to $4.42 on May 13, 2009. Some think that the worst of the price collapse that began in July 2008 is over, and that gas prices will return to normal. I do not believe that is the case, though I certainly hope that I am wrong. Chesapeake Energy proclaimed in a recent investor presentation that “the fix is under way”, and that natural gas prices will soon return to $7-8/Mcf. Chesapeake and other companies make the case that prices will rebound because of the drastic decrease in drilling.

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Obama Tackles the Liquid Fuels Problem

Today I’ll try to explain President Obama’s policy for decreasing oil consumption in the United States. Right now the administration has so many balls in the air that it is impossible to make a definite statement about what the effects of their initiatives will be, but a coherent policy is emerging if you gather all the pieces together. I compile a list Obama’s policies at the end of 2nd section below.

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