Author: aspo-usa

Top 10 Developments of 2010

1. Unexpected Growth in Global Demand

As the global demand for oil increased during 2010 the IEA was forced to steadily increase its forecast for average annual demand. In January the agency said that the increase over 2009 would be 1.4 million b/d. By July that had increased to a 1.8 million b/d gain and in mid-December the estimate was up to a 2.5 million b/d increase in global oil consumption. The agency notes that in the 3rd quarter global demand may have been up by 3.3 million b/d over the previous year, a rate which is clearly outstripping increases in production and indicating that a drawdown in global stocks is taking place.

Everyone in the Peak Oil Community knows the danger of making predictions. Trying to call the future is a challenging project. But ASPO-USA and Peak Oil Review have combined to pull together predictions about what we can expect in 2011 from a wide range of thinkers, writers, scholars and experts, who graciously agreed to risk being wrong so that you can have the inside scoop!

We all remember the oil price run-up (and run back down) of 2008. Now, with prices similar to where they were in the fall of 2007, the question quite naturally arises as to whether we are headed for another similar scenario.

Of course, we know that the scenario cannot really be the same. World economies are now much weaker than in late 2007. Several countries are having problems with debt, even with oil at its current price. If the oil price rises by $20 or $30 or $40 barrel, we can be pretty sure that those countries will be in much worse financial condition. And while governments have learned to deal with collapsing banks, citizens have a “been there, done that” attitude. They may not be as willing to bail out banks that seem to be contributing to the problems of the day.