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“OPEC doesn’t seem to have raised its supply very much in response to the higher oil prices [2004-2008], except a million barrels a day or so at the end. One might suspect that their statements about high spare capacity overstate the extent that they can really ramp up supplies when oil prices are tight. But they are willing to drop production when oil prices decline, and the portion of their oil supply that is most expensive to produce becomes less profitable.”