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PEMEX has released new numbers showing that its oil production slid by 9.3 percent during the first 11 months to 2.8 million b/d.  Through November, exports have fallen by 17.3 percent to 1.4 million b/d.  Production at the giant Cantarell oil field, which in May 2005 produced 2.2 million b/d, fell by 31 percent this year to less than 1 million b/d.

Although PEMEX is making a major effort in to increase production elsewhere to help offset continuing declines from Cantarell, this is likely to be a lengthy, expensive project especially where deep water drilling is involved. A growing number believe that within two or three years, Mexico may not be able to export much oil.