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(Business Insider) The oil market is still way oversupplied. As a result, prices haven’t been able to recover after falling about 70% in the last year. In the last few weeks as oil prices have collapsed to post-crisis lows a number of factors — both technical and fundamental — have been working against the market.

In the background of the oil decline over the last year-plus has been the standoff between the 13-member oil cartel OPEC and US shale oil producers. Earlier this month, OPEC declined to curb its production and instead maintained its status quo as it works to defend its market share against a surge in production from US shale producers.

And it is this production from US shale producers, also called the swing producers in the market, that has been fingered as the main culprit behind the price collapse.

But this chart, which comes to us from analysts at Citi, makes it clear that prices are going to have to go lower still to get production entirely halted.