Weekly Review

Five years ago, John Tierney, a columnist with The New York Times, and Matt Simmons, peak oil guru and founder of energy investment bank Simmons & Co., made a bet. Simmons argued that oil prices would be much higher in 2010. Tierney, a believer in human ingenuity and a follower of economist Julian Simon, took the other position. Simon, a so-called Cornucopian, argued that there would always be abundant supplies of energy and other natural resources and that the real price of commodities like oil would remain stable or decline over time.

Top 10 Developments of 2010

1. Unexpected Growth in Global Demand

As the global demand for oil increased during 2010 the IEA was forced to steadily increase its forecast for average annual demand. In January the agency said that the increase over 2009 would be 1.4 million b/d. By July that had increased to a 1.8 million b/d gain and in mid-December the estimate was up to a 2.5 million b/d increase in global oil consumption. The agency notes that in the 3rd quarter global demand may have been up by 3.3 million b/d over the previous year, a rate which is clearly outstripping increases in production and indicating that a drawdown in global stocks is taking place.

Everyone in the Peak Oil Community knows the danger of making predictions. Trying to call the future is a challenging project. But ASPO-USA and Peak Oil Review have combined to pull together predictions about what we can expect in 2011 from a wide range of thinkers, writers, scholars and experts, who graciously agreed to risk being wrong so that you can have the inside scoop!