(Bloomberg) Reduced spending by oil explorers will lead to a global shortage of crude within the next few years, according to industry consultant Rystad Energy.
While the world’s exploration and production companies need to replace 34 billion barrels of oil every year to meet consumption needs, the companies made investment decisions that will result in only about 8 billion barrels in 2015, Rystad said in a report released Wednesday.
(CNBC) Oil prices pared some of their losses on Wednesday after falling to near seven-year lows earlier in the week, but those hoping for a rebound next year may be disappointed.
Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told CNBC that crude prices could continue to fall in 2016, presenting a challenge to governments that are trying to encourage the use of relatively expensive sustainable energy.
(CNBC) The collapse of the housing bubble sent the world spiraling into recession. The collapse of the energy and commodity bubble threatens to be just as damaging. That few are willing to even use the term “bubble” with regard to the boom and bust in the price of oil, copper, iron ore, and other materials tells how early we still are in the painful unwind phase.
(Peak Oil Barrel) The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report has US shale oil on a steep decline. The below shale oil production charts are the EIA’s estimate of what shale production will look like through January 2016. Keep in mind this is the EIA’s estimate and not hard production numbers.
(Reuters) A global oil supply glut will persist through 2016 as demand growth slows from a five-year high and key OPEC members maintain near-record output, the International Energy Agency said, even as low prices curb supply outside the producer group.
(NY Times) The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in its deepest downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier.
Earnings are down for companies that have made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission nearly two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investments in exploration and production. More than 200,000 oil workers have lost their jobs, and manufacturing of drilling and production equipment has fallen sharply.
(Bloomberg) Oil extended losses below $40 a barrel amid speculation a record global glut will be prolonged as OPEC abandoned its long-time strategy of limiting production to control prices.
“It’s very clear that the production of oil and gas has carried [Texas] through this boomlet. Once the golden goose leaves, there’s nothing left but them regular gooses.”
Texas state Representative Garnet Coleman
The long-awaited OPEC decision came on Friday. With the Saudis and their close allies adamant that they would not cut production unless Russia and Iran and other OPEC members agreed to cut too, the meeting had no where to go but to continue existing policies. Indonesia was readmitted into the cartel and the output ceiling was adjusted to 31.5 million b/d reflecting the realities of the addition of Indonesia and of actual current production. While the cartel will reconsider the issue in June, the final decision led to considerable pessimism among traders. Global over-production is now running some 1.8 million to 2 million b/d and there is a good possibility that Iran will add at least another 500,000 b/d to the glut in the first six months of 2016. OPEC is hoping that stronger demand for oil will erase at least some of the over-production next year, but many see overproduction continuing into 2017.
(Wall Street Journal) The standoff between major global energy producers that has created an oil glut is set to continue next year in full force, as much because of the U.S. as of OPEC.
(Bloomberg) OPEC signaled no respite from the global oil glut that has driven prices to a six-year low.
(CNBC) Plunging oil prices have left many crude-exporting countries with budgets that simply won’t balance.
For many of the biggest producers — places like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Algeria — oil accounts for the majority of the country’s exports and gross domestic product. Collapsing prices have meant dramatic declines in government revenue at a time when many political leaders are working to maintain social stability through liberal spending.
(CNBC) Just a few miles from Houston’s Astrodome, a cluster of subterranean salt caverns will soon be able to store enough oil to fill the famed stadium.
By the end of 2016, phase I of Fairway Energy Partners’ Pierce Junction crude oil storage facility will come online, touting three caverns capable of socking away a combined 10 million barrels of black gold.
(CBS) VIENNA – OPEC nations decided Friday to keep producing oil at their current high levels, effectively acknowledging their inability to push up crude prices.
“We’ll demonstrate that we are serious about climate change. This means making decisions based on science; it means reducing carbon emissions, including through carbon pricing towards a climate resilient economy.”
Justin Trudeau, new prime minister of Canada
Oil prices were little changed last week despite the the downing of the Russian warplane which temporarily sent prices higher on fears of a wider conflict affecting prices. At week’s end New York futures were down 19 cents for the week at $41.71 and London’s Brent was up 20 cents at $44.86. For November, oil prices will be down about 9 percent. There seems to be general agreement among observers that prices are headed still lower. Moscow announced that it will not be sending a high-level official to the OPEC meeting thereby foreclosing on the hints that Russia and OPEC were about to come up with a deal to cut production and raise prices.
(Bloomberg) For Russia, $30 is the number to watch. Crude prices at that level will push the economy to depths that would threaten the nation’s financial system, according to 15 of 27 respondents in a Bloomberg survey. Lower prices for the fuel are next year’s biggest risk for Russia, which is unprepared to ride out another shock on the oil market, most economists said. Other dangers for 2016 include geopolitics, strains in the banking industry and the ruble, according to the poll of 27 analysts.
(MySanAntonio.com) I spent a recent Thursday as part of the Watch D.O.G.S. — Dads Of Great Students — at Christian Evers Elementary, where three of my daughters go to school. We get to hang out with our kids in their classrooms, during their activities — such as P.E., lunch and library — patrol the halls, etc.
(RigZone.com) North American upstream companies continue to slash spending but demand growth could turn that around within the next 18 to 20 months. Cuts to capital spending in the North American exploration and production (E&P) sector is a stark reminder that during much of the year companies have had to tighten their belts in response to dismal crude oil prices. Estimates show that cuts have hit 30 percent in 2015, and could drop another 20 percent in 2016.
(PeakOilBarrel.com) The EIA publishes oil consumption numbers for all major nations. However they have data for most nations only through 2013. They do have data for some nations through 2014. Nevertheless a lot can be gleaned from just looking at those consumption numbers.
(CNN) Everyone in the energy industry is suffering as crude oil prices have slumped. But some oil producing countries are hurting more than others.
“U.S. production is about to have a Wile E. Coyote moment where it literally falls off a cliff. One-hundred-and-twenty-thousand barrels, maybe even next month, will drop off…. The supply and demand mismatch will probably come in 2017.”
Emad Mostaque, analyst with London-based consultancy Ecstrat
New York oil lost 35 cents last week closing at $40.39 a barrel after having dipped just before settlement to $38.99, the lowest price since August. In London Brent closed up 1.1 percent for the week at $44.66. Prices were weaker in the US as nationwide crude stocks climbed by 252,000 barrels, but stocks at Cushing, Ok storage depot rose by 1.8 million barrels. The US rig count was down by ten last week, after a two-rig increase the week before. Russia and the Saudis continue to pump at or near maximum capacity. Most brokers are expecting that Iran will be back into the markets in the first quarter of 2016 at about 500,000 b/d day to start.
(OurFiniteWorld.com) The traditional understanding of supply and demand works in some limited cases–will a manufacturer make red dresses or blue dresses? The manufacturer’s choice doesn’t make much difference to the economic system as a whole, except perhaps in the amount of red and blue dye sold, so it is easy to accommodate.
(Wall Street Journal) After hitting a five-year high in 2015, the global growth in demand for oil is expected to fall by about a third next year, adding further strain to an already oversupplied crude market.
