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The Radical Hypothesis

It is hardly an exaggeration to say that humanity has reached a fork in the road, and future generations await our decision. Our energy & economic prospects are at stake, and these two necessities are inextricably linked. At such turning points, it is natural for apprehension to cloud our judgment. We want to hang on to what we have, or improve upon it, but our uncertainty is greater than our ability to discern the long-term future. The only things that seem clear are that the future will not resemble the past, and must not resemble it.

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It's Not Black Or White

Layer upon layer of confusion pervades the discussion of why oil prices have been so volatile over the last 3 years. People often yearn for simple explanations. Some want somebody to blame, while others hold on to cherished theories. In these cases observers demand a Black Or White view of events which caricatures more complex realities.

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Interview with Charles T. Maxwell (Part 2 of 2)

It’s a little difficult to answer because there are two different kinds of money we’re talking about: what will industry spend and where should government spend? Because if the industry is going to spend money on shale gas, which it is, then the government doesn’t have to spend any money there. Shale gas is a natural answer to the near-term energy problem; it’s one of the big answers we’ve got.

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A Shale Gas Boom?

Will we have a shale gas boom? I’ve described the contentious argument among those who follow the natural gas industry. Generally, my sympathy lies with skeptics like Art Berman. As someone who has written extensively about peak oil, I’ve encountered the human proclivity to hype a situation far beyond any semblance to reality time and time again… Nevertheless, I’m going to say the jury is still out on this one. That’s not a cop-out, because the verdict will be in very soon, certainly within the next few years.

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Commentary: Interview with Charlie Maxwell (Part 1 of 2)

By crushing demand, we are in effect gaining two more years, maybe three, in which we in the consuming world have added to our time before the peak, and could take good advantage of, since the peak is right upon us-I have it still at 2015 for all liquids. But, given the way we’re going about it, given the politics, given the direction of the world–like the Chavezs nationalizing all those oil service companies, and the continued Russian attitude–I don’t think that mankind is going to take advantage of those extra two or three years.

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Category:

Bad Signs, New Bubbles

Assuming the Bubble Next Time thesis is correct, where does that leave us? We will eventually get inflation rates over and above the 1-2% currently priced in. Burgeoning consumption in emerging economies will cause commodity prices will soar again as they did in the period 2003-2008:H1. The sky will be the limit for a barrel of oil. The United States economy will remain in the doldrums for many years. This is a worst of both worlds scenario. We hope for the best but in 2009, why shouldn’t we expect the worst?

Posted On : Published By : aspo-usa