(CNBC) History is repeating itself on Nymex, and although $10 oil looks a long shot, technical analysis indicates that prices have further to fall.

The weekly Nymex crude oil futures chart shows a repeat of the downtrend behavior that has characterized the oil price since the collapse began in 2014 September, with the fall below critical support at $38 a gap down from the previous weekly close of $39.94.

These dramatic gap-down moves have been a feature of the oil price collapse, and usually they signal a very fast fall to the next support level.

Meanwhile, the fall below $38 has invalidated the bullish consolidation pattern that appeared to develop from March to October. This pattern failed to develop.

Some analysts have suggested $10 is the downside target for oil. The charts suggest a fall to this price level is a low probability. But the fall below critical support near $38 does change the nature of the oil price behavior.

The first step to determine the downside target for oil is to apply the same trading band analysis methods that successfully set the downside targets when oil fell below $98. A $28 target is calculated by taking the width of the trading band and projecting […]