Category: analysis

(Reuters) As oil traders have learned time and again, picking a bottom in today’s glutted global market can be a fool’s game: just when prices start to rebound, as they have three times this year, a wave of renewed bearishness smacks them back down.

With oil resuming its southward march due to yet more oversupply, closing in on $35 a barrel after trading at $100 in June 2014, any number of factors could indicate when the rout may finally be over – for real this time.

(Reuters) The first response of commodity producers to a drop in prices is normally to increase production – ensuring price falls become deeper and more prolonged.t stimulates production, because farmers try to make up by a larger volume in production the decrease in income resulting from the fall in prices.”

(Business Insider) The oil market is still way oversupplied. As a result, prices haven’t been able to recover after falling about 70% in the last year. In the last few weeks as oil prices have collapsed to post-crisis lows a number of factors — both technical and fundamental — have been working against the market.

(Energy Matters) Every year I have a bet with a good friend on where the Brent oil price will be in December the following year. Last year I estimated $56.50, my friend $99, so this year I am a clear winner, even though I’m out by about 49%. Brent is trading at $38 as I write. I can extract little satisfaction from this since I got “close” for the wrong reasons.

(CNBC) History is repeating itself on Nymex, and although $10 oil looks a long shot, technical analysis indicates that prices have further to fall.

(Wall Street Journal) This was supposed to be the year oil prices turned around.

Ten banks surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in March predicted that U.S. crude would average $50 a barrel or better in the fourth quarter. December 2015 futures contracts were selling for $63.82 a year ago.

(Peak Oil Barrel) The EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report has US shale oil on a steep decline. The below shale oil production charts are the EIA’s estimate of what shale production will look like through January 2016. Keep in mind this is the EIA’s estimate and not hard production numbers.