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(Platts) Platts Energy Economist Managing Editor Ross McCracken takes a look at OPEC’s spare crude production capacity. Much has been made recently of the US’ new spare capacity, but OPEC’s role has also shifted, as he explains.

OPEC’s spare production capacity is estimated by the US Energy Information Administration at 1.54 million b/d, a mere 180,000 b/d above the level reached in 2008 when oil prices hit their record high. But don’t panic! Oil inventories are at very high levels. The International Energy Agency puts global oil stocks at 147 million barrels, which it notes could notionally deliver 1.6 million b/d for just over 90 days in the event of a major supply disruption.

Meanwhile, the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources reports that the number of drilled but uncompleted wells in the state hit 993 in August. According to Platts unit Bentek Energy, these wells if brought on-stream would add 591,000 b/d to Bakken crude production (again, notionally).

This represents a major change in the oil market. Spare capacity is no longer solely held by OPEC, but is split between the Middle East, principally Saudi Arabia, and the drilled but uncompleted wells in US shale plays. Moreover, this is backed by the […]