Review March 14, 2011
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Last week started with oil prices Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Last week started with oil prices Continue Reading
“I think if this energy shortage continues, the public will get fed-up, and there are Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Oil prices climbed steadily last week Continue Reading
In his recent column in the New York Times, Michael C. Lynch shows that he does not grasp the crucial difference between crude oil reserves and supply (“Drilling for an Oil Crisis”, February 24, 2011). Demand and the rising cost of getting oil out of the ground are apparently not important in his “don’t worry be happy” message that the plentiful oil of the past will continue into the indefinite future.
For him, reserves are all that matter. The fact that reserves usually take years of drilling and complex negotiations before they become supply escapes him. Of all the oil discovered in the last decade, less than 3 percent has been produced so far (M.K. Horn and Associates, Giant Fields Database, 2010). I suppose Mr. Lynch thinks that this is good news for the future, but it does nothing to address today’s soaring demand.
“Jeremy Gilbert, BP‘s former chief petroleum engineer, is deeply skeptical of Saudi Arabia‘s ability to Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Last week the oil markets were Continue Reading
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Based on the ELM, we have concluded that given a production decline in an oil-exporting country, the Net Export Decline (NED) rate will exceed the production-decline rate and the NED rate will accelerate with time – unless the exporting country cuts its oil consumption at the same rate as, or at a faster rate than, the rate of decline in production. Furthermore, the bulk of post-peak Cumulative Net Exports (CNE) tends to be shipped early in the NED period.
“I don’t think any regime is immune.”
So far Libya is the only major oil exporting country in which the upheavals appear likely to threaten oil exports in the near future. Benghazi in eastern Libya has fallen into the hands of the demonstrators and a local tribal chief is threatening to cut off oil exports unless Tripoli stops using violence against demonstrators. Libya exports about 1.5 million b/d most of which goes to Europe.
Given that US gasoline prices inevitably rise from February to the summer driving season as demand increases and more expensive blends are produced, observers are starting to talk about $3.50 gasoline this summer and even $4 if there is trouble in the Middle East or if the Saudis do not come through with their widely anticipated production increase this year.
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Last week oil prices were dominated Continue Reading
Modern man, the kind with the 1400 cc brain, is said to have been around Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy With the resignation of Egyptian President Continue Reading
The price of oil is once again daily in the news. The western Europe benchmark Brent crude has hovered near $100 / barrel for much of the last month, and the IEA is again warning of the burden of oil consumption. Is this a harbinger of things to come, or a mere statistical blip in a market that is ‘well supplied’? How will events play out in oil markets in the coming year or two?
Certainly, oil prices have surged on the back on strong demand, of which some is structural, and some transient. The northern hemisphere has seen a strikingly cold winter, leading to increased heating oil usage. And the global economy is recovering from a deep recession, with demand bouncing off the recessionary trough. These are, to an extent, passing events. But in many respects, increased prices fundamentally reflect an oil demand that is increasing faster than supply.
Peak Oil News Feb 10, 2011 ENERGY AGENCY WARNS OF DANGER FROM HIGH OIL PRICES Continue Reading
“Federal permitting has fallen off a cliff, and the resulting impact on Louisiana families, jobs, Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy NY crude futures traded around $91 Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy The week started with oil prices Continue Reading
“He may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.” Continue Reading
“For Russia to maintain production at or above 10 million barrels per day, the investments Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy In New York oil futures traded Continue Reading
Mission failure. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is funded by American taxpayers to warn about Continue Reading