Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist
“We are in the danger zone now with prices and how the economy is responding.”
“We are in the danger zone now with prices and how the economy is responding.”
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Oil prices moved up steadily last Continue Reading
“We continue to believe that the top for crude oil prices this year is not Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy After a dip which sent NY Continue Reading
In a Brookings Institution presentation in early 2009, UCSD economist James Hamilton suggested that the government think of using the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to counter high oil prices. Although the suggestion failed to gain traction at the time, recent upheaval in the Middle East is once again putting the future of the SPR back on the agenda. Should the reserve be drawn to cool oil prices which have surged on the back of lost Libyan crude output? I must admit I was somewhat cool to the idea when Hamilton published his Brookings paper, but his suggestions often prove prescient and therefore deserve closer examination. Indeed I became much more convinced when I saw a Federal Reserve presentation on short term oil prices, which largely concluded that the institution has little insight into short term oil price movements. Given the potential impact of oil prices on the economy, the Fed does not have the luxury of such ignorance.
The SPR was established in 1975, after the first oil crisis, with the purpose of providing a critical petroleum reserve to the US which could be drawn in the event of war or embargo. This seems sensible enough. A large and militarily critical power like the US should avoid being held hostage to energy exporters like the Gulf states and Russia. But the oil-price spikes of 2008 show that oil prices can substantially damage the US economy even without hostile acts by other countries.
“The surest remedy for high prices may ultimately prove to be high prices themselves.”
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy NY crude continued the fall last Continue Reading
In 1999, I wrote a paper concerning the production decline of North Sea oil fields and made projections for the future of Norwegian and United Kingdom (U.K.) oil production (crude + condensate). For comparison purposes, I compared my projections with those by the U.S. Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration (US DOE/EIA). Table I is from that paper.
“More aggressive clean energy policies are required, including the removal of fossil fuel subsidies and Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy NY oil hovered around $108 a Continue Reading
“If things go as planned we will be reaching around 2.5 million barrels a day Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Oil prices moved up sharply last Continue Reading
A Message from Executive Director Jan Lars Mueller On March 1, I officially started my Continue Reading
“Global oil prices are moving towards $120 a barrel. We consider this an acceptable price Continue Reading
Restrictions on world oil production can be divided into four categories:
1. Geology
2. Legitimate National Interests
3. Mismanagement
4. Political Upheaval
Consider each in reverse order:
Political upheaval is currently rampant across the Middle East, resulting in a major spike in world oil prices. No one knows how far the impacts will go or how long it will take to reach some kind of stability and what that stability will mean to oil production in the Middle Eastern countries that produce oil. We are thus relegated to best guesses, which span weeks, months, or years before there are clear resolutions. One pre-Middle East chaos country limited by political upheaval is Iraq, which is believed to have the oil reserves to produce at a much higher level, but Iraqi government chaos has severely limited oil production expansion. In another long-standing case, Nigeria has been plagued by internal political strife, which has negatively impacted its oil production.
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy There was little change in oil Continue Reading
ASPO-USA is pleased to announce the addition of two distinguished members to the Board of Continue Reading
ASPO-USA is providing input and comments to two major studies being conducted by the National Continue Reading
ASPO-USA is strengthening its presence in Washington DC, as part of our strategic plan to Continue Reading
ASPO-USA is seeking to expand and diversify its roster of contributing writers. Through our annual Continue Reading
President Obama is expected to deliver a speech on oil and energy issues on April Continue Reading
Libya’s “exports could be off the market for many months due to both war-inflicted damage Continue Reading
Download Full PDF 1. Oil and the Global Economy Oil prices saw a volatile week Continue Reading
“Two states is not necessarily bad for us. What would be the worst potential outcome Continue Reading
You and I use a lot of energy. Every second of each day and night we devour 100 times more energy than we need to live. If I were to eat that much energy as food, I would be a 50-foot long bull sperm whale, weighing 40 tons. There are 300,000 sperm whales worldwide, half of them bulls (females are much smaller), and 300,000,000 Americans (females are about the same in size). Our Earth cannot feed and protect 300,000,000 male sperm whales. She is simply too small.
Our voracious appetite for energy must be either extinguished or quenched with local sources of energy (and, no, wind turbines and PV cells are too small to provide even a single ample energy meal per day).