Year: 2010

Five years ago Robert Hirsch headed the team that produced the first US government-sponsored report discussing the consequences of declining world oil production. The team which wrote the original report, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, is now out with a book that discusses the current state of the world energy situation and what we can expect in the decades ahead. Developments during the last five years have sharpened the team’s appreciation of the imminence of the coming decline in world oil production. The first report, written five years ago, discussed what could be done to mitigate the situation if steps were taken 20 and 10 years before the decline in oil production started.

What do former Green Party Presidential Candidate Ralph Nader, Rear Admiral Lawrence Rice, former secretaries of defense and energy Dr. James Schlesinger, Human Rights and Environmental Campaigner Bianca Jagger, former CIBC Chief Economist Jeff Rubin, and Republican Congressman Roscoe Bartlett have in common?

The Northeast US, where I live, has a particularly acute sensitivity to oil prices because 82 percent of the households heating entirely or partially with oil are in this region. Natural gas lines simply don’t go out to many exurban or rural areas in the Northeast, so in Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and in Northern New York, a disproportionate percentage of the population heats their homes with oil.

In years past, there was considerable uncertainty in my mind about when the decline of world oil production might begin. Recently it became clear to me that it’s going to be sooner rather than later. I believe that the onset of the decline of world oil production is likely in the next two to five years. And when I say “oil,” I mean all liquid fuels.

Peak Oil Review: Saudi Arabia is obviously yours and everyone’s kingpin producer.

Smith: Saudi Arabia has been the world’s main swing producer. Since 2006 when I developed the slides, Saudi Arabia has increased its production capacity; a lot was planned at the time, but they’ve been quite proactive in investing in their industry.