Weekly Review

The world oil production data below tell a story about: 1) nations that are past peak (see “Peak Year,” turquoise fill), because of geologic limits (e.g., US, Norway, etc.) or other reasons; and 2) nations that have yet to peak (see “na” under “Peak Year;” Saudi Arabia, UAE, China), or if they have peaked it is not yet clear. An equally interesting trend is–irrespective of peaking–whether or not nations are increasing (first column; Brazil); have either flat or volatile production (second column, in blue; Iran, Iraq); or are experiencing decreasing production (third column, in red); the 2009 OPEC quotas continue to complicate the overall numbers here. Also, follow the trend of oil production nations whose exports are declining. Six non-OPEC nations increased by over 100,000 barrels/day-year (vs. 12 in 2004); two non-OPEC experienced declines over 100,000 barrels/day-year (also two in 2004). Peak appears to be close but not yet; we were on relatively plateau production during 2005-2008, then down in 2009, up strongly in 2010, up so far in 2011. Keep following the increasing roles of economic-driven demand destruction, violence, the Arab Spring, resource nationalism, timing of production investment and peak oil exports.

There are so many challenges facing us as a result of Peak Oil and related issues that it is easy to miss something important. ASPO-USA asked more than 50 leaders on Peak Oil to share what they felt was the most critical issue we’ve all been missing, the thing every one of us should be talking about – but aren’t. The answers were eye-opening, and have started a discussion that continues. This is the last in a three part series (First two parts available here and here), in place of a traditional commentary, Peak Oil Review will run a range of perspectives on this issue – from geologists to food experts, from social critics to scientists – what are we missing? Where should we be putting more attention, more resources? All of us miss things – but between so many working minds, we have a better chance of covering the expansive ground that we have to address. We thank all of our contributors for expanding our vision!

(Note: Commentaries do not necessarily represent the position of ASPO-USA.) There are so many challenges Continue Reading

There are so many challenges facing us as a result of Peak Oil and related issues that it is easy to miss something important. ASPO-USA asked more than 50 leaders on Peak Oil to share what they felt was the most critical issue we’ve all been missing, the thing every one of us should be talking about – but aren’t. The answers were eye-opening, and have started a discussion that continues. Over the next three weeks, in place of a traditional commentary, Peak Oil Review will run a range of perspectives on this issue – from geologists to food experts, from social critics to scientists – what are we missing? Where should we be putting more attention, more resources? All of us miss things – but between so many working minds, we have a better chance of covering the expansive ground that we have to address. We thank all of our contributors for expanding our vision!

As Pogo said, “We have met the enemy and he is us.”

I think that a large portion of the US oil & gas industry has basically shot itself in the foot, by agreeing with, or failing to confront, assertions such as the following by CERA, ExxonMobil and OPEC:

CERA: “Rather than a ‘peak,’ we should expect an ‘undulating plateau’ perhaps three or four decades from now.”

Robert Esser, Senior Consultant and Director, Global Oil and Gas Resources Cambridge Energy Research Associates
December 7, 2005

The March 28, 2011 edition of the ASPO-USA Peak Oil Review had a brief which I found of considerable interest. It stated:

A perspective paper in Journal of Chemical Technology & Biotechnology makes a case that conversion of biomass to cellulosic ethanol is the most efficient and productive use of biomass to create a high-octane, environmentally friendly transportation fuel. (3/23, #17)

I found it to be of considerable interest because there is a proposal to build a commercial cellulosic ethanol biorefinery in the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan not far from where I live.

Based upon information provided by the corporation proposing the biorefinery, Frontier Renewable Resources LLC, owned by Mascoma Corporation and J.M. Longyear, I would not consider cellulosic ethanol to be efficient from an energy perspective.