Weekly Review

The Northeast US, where I live, has a particularly acute sensitivity to oil prices because 82 percent of the households heating entirely or partially with oil are in this region. Natural gas lines simply don’t go out to many exurban or rural areas in the Northeast, so in Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and in Northern New York, a disproportionate percentage of the population heats their homes with oil.

In years past, there was considerable uncertainty in my mind about when the decline of world oil production might begin. Recently it became clear to me that it’s going to be sooner rather than later. I believe that the onset of the decline of world oil production is likely in the next two to five years. And when I say “oil,” I mean all liquid fuels.

Peak Oil Review: Saudi Arabia is obviously yours and everyone’s kingpin producer.

Smith: Saudi Arabia has been the world’s main swing producer. Since 2006 when I developed the slides, Saudi Arabia has increased its production capacity; a lot was planned at the time, but they’ve been quite proactive in investing in their industry.

Peak Oil Review Team: Could you share a little about your background?

Michael Smith: I was once a geologist, and worked with oil and gas consultancies and companies after graduating from Oxford University in the UK with a PhD. I had worked in most parts of the world when, at the turn of the millennium, I started my own company Energyfiles, focusing on oil and gas production, consumption and

How high up the ladder did his viewpoints climb? To the very top. Matt co-chaired the energy task force of presidential candidate George W. Bush in the fall of 2000. (He also shared his energy insights with staffers for a Democratic candidate earlier in the year.) Matt helped Bill White win election as Mayor of Houston, and provided advice and support to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in his 2008 campaign. During a short session in the Oval Office with President Bush in early 2001, Matt shared his concerns about our emerging energy crisis. In subsequent years, he would testify before several House and Senate committees, an experience he would compare to “shouting down a well.” More recently, he gave a one-hour presentation in the Pentagon auditorium that stretched another hour with intense questioning.

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