Author: Daniel Lerch

The OPEC+ group of major producers agreed on Thursday to stick to their plan to raise oil output by 400,000 b/d from December, ignoring calls from President Biden for extra output to cool rising prices. This decision led to a price rebound on Friday, leaving Brent crude finishing the week at $82.74 a barrel. US WTI closed at $81.27. Following the OPEC+ announcement US Energy Secretary Granholm said President Biden is considering a release from the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as a possible move to reduce gasoline prices in the US. The SPR is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil and it currently holds around 600 million barrels.

Futures rose above $84 a barrel on Friday, within sight of a multi-year high hit last week. Expectations that OPEC and its allies will keep supply tight countered a weekly rise in US inventories and the prospect of more Iranian exports. Oil posted a monthly gain for October of 11% on signs that consumption is outpacing supply and declining stockpiles. New York futures closed at $83.57 and London at $83.72. Last month’s advance shows the impact of an ongoing shortage of natural gas, which has boosted demand for oil products. At the same time, rising margins signal that crude consumption will remain strong as refiners continue to process more oil to meet demand. That could mean that global oil stockpiles will continue to fall in the coming months.

Futures rallied last week on concerns that rising consumption is racing ahead of supply. Oil prices rose early on Thursday, with Brent Crude rallying to $86.10—the highest price since October 2018. New York crude settled at a fresh seven-year high on Wednesday and closed Friday at $83.76. According to government data, US crude inventories fell by 431,000 barrels the week before last compared with a Bloomberg survey that had forecast a fourth weekly increase. Gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased more than expected. The market has tightened significantly as coal and natural gas shortages drive greater crude consumption, underpinning a rally in prices.

US crude futures posted an eighth straight weekly gain, the longest stretch of advances since 2015. Brent crude topped $85 a barrel in London for the first time since 2018, the latest milestone in a global energy crisis that has seen prices soar. The global benchmark rose above that level in intraday trading but did not settle above it on Friday. West Texas Intermediate for November settlement rose 97 cents to settle at $82.28 a barrel.  Brent for December delivery added 86 cents to settle at $84.86 a barrel. The shortage of gas and coal is triggering extra demand for oil products from the power market. It’s also depleting stockpiles: the biggest US storage hub at Cushing recorded a considerable supply decline for this time of year.

West Texas Intermediate crude closed above $80 a barrel on Monday for the first time since late 2014 as a growing power crisis from Europe to Asia boosts demand for oil ahead of winter.

rices rose for the fifth straight week with the global energy crunch set to boost demand for crude as stockpiles decline from the US to China. Futures in New York gained 2.8% last week. The global benchmark Brent settled at the highest in nearly three years for the second day in a row on Friday. Global onshore crude supplies sank by almost 21 million barrels last week, led by China, while US inventories are near a three-year low.

Brent futures dipped on Friday but held above $75 a barrel, remaining on track for weekly gains of more than 3% thanks to the slow recovery in output after two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Brent crude futures fell 27 cents, or 0.36%, to $75.40 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures closed at $72.22 after settling unchanged in the previous session. Hurricane Ida is now officially the most devastating hurricane ever in terms of oil production disruption, and experts expect the outages to last throughout September.

Futures rose towards $73 a barrel on Friday as refineries in Louisiana restarted and returning offshore production could not keep pace. About two-thirds of the US Gulf’s offshore oil production or about 1.2 million b/d has remained offline since late August. As a result, US crude inventories fell to the lowest since September 2019. The storm that hit the US Gulf of Mexico so far has removed more than 21 million barrels of crude from the market. Over 1.68 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas were also off-line on Friday, while a total of 65 platforms and three rigs continued to be evacuated.

Damages to oil production facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico kept output largely halted a week after Hurricane Ida made landfall, according to offshore regulator the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. Energy companies have been coping with damaged platforms and onshore power outages and logistical issues, slowing efforts to restart production. Some 88% of crude oil output and 83% of natural gas production remained suspended. About 1.6 million barrels of crude oil remained offline, with only about 100,000 barrels added since Saturday. Another 1.8 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas output also was shut in.

Prices advanced as hurricane Ida shut off some 59% of Gulf of Mexico crude production. At the same time, the Federal Reserve reinforced its support to begin tapering stimulus by the end of the year. Futures in New York rose 2% on Friday to post the biggest weekly gain in more than a year. Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the central bank could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases this year, though it won’t be in a hurry to start raising interest rates after that. Some 49% of Gulf natural gas production was also shut ahead of the storm. The Gulf accounts for roughly 17% of the nation’s oil production, totaling about 1.7 million b/d, and 5% of its dry gas production.