If the ban on US oil exports is lifted…] “The net effect of export of American oil on the market is zero. This will have no effect on the price because the U.S. still is an importing country. They export some, but they need to import the same quantity from somewhere else.”
Abdalla El-Badri, Secretary-General of OPEC
“The long-term price of oil is literally unforecastable. The only thing that can be said with absolute certainty is that oil prices will continue to defy the expectations of experts.”
John Kemp, Reuters
“Nothing is economic at today’s prices… We’re drilling the best of the best rock right now. At some point we’ll have to move to lesser-quality rock, which will increase the break-even costs.”
James West, analyst at Evercore ISI
Oil prices continued to fall with London closing on Friday at $36.88, down 3.8 percent for the week, and New York closing at $34.73, down 2.5 percent for the week. A surprise and unexplained jump of 17 units in the US rig count announced on Friday helped the decline. Prices are now approaching an 11-year low. New highs in US crude inventories, including a 1.4 million barrel jump in the stocks at Cushing, Okla., and unusually warm weather across the US and Europe, continue as major reasons for the decline. The outlook for oil prices remains gloomy. OPEC will keep its output at 32 million b/d for the time being and Iran is expected to be increasing its exports in the next few months. Talk of a bargain between OPEC and Russia to jointly lower crude production was quashed by Moscow late last week. Some are now saying that it will take two years to eliminate the excess crude stockpiles after supply and demand are brought back into balance.
(Reuters) As oil traders have learned time and again, picking a bottom in today’s glutted global market can be a fool’s game: just when prices start to rebound, as they have three times this year, a wave of renewed bearishness smacks them back down.
With oil resuming its southward march due to yet more oversupply, closing in on $35 a barrel after trading at $100 in June 2014, any number of factors could indicate when the rout may finally be over – for real this time.
(Reuters) The first response of commodity producers to a drop in prices is normally to increase production – ensuring price falls become deeper and more prolonged.t stimulates production, because farmers try to make up by a larger volume in production the decrease in income resulting from the fall in prices.”
(Bloomberg) As oil crashes through $35 a barrel in New York, some producers are already living with the reality of much lower prices.
(Business Insider) The oil market is still way oversupplied. As a result, prices haven’t been able to recover after falling about 70% in the last year. In the last few weeks as oil prices have collapsed to post-crisis lows a number of factors — both technical and fundamental — have been working against the market.
(Wall Street Journal) Pumpjacks for an oil well near Williston, N.D. What will the global oil market look like in 2016? This year is closing out with the industry in turmoil. The price of oil is hovering in the mid-$30s a barrel, supplies are swamping the market, the U.S. is on the cusp of ending its decades-old oil-export ban, and geopolitical rivalries continue to sow uncertainty.
(Energy Matters) Every year I have a bet with a good friend on where the Brent oil price will be in December the following year. Last year I estimated $56.50, my friend $99, so this year I am a clear winner, even though I’m out by about 49%. Brent is trading at $38 as I write. I can extract little satisfaction from this since I got “close” for the wrong reasons.
(Aleklett’s Energy Mix) This year’s big news regarding the reporting of oil reserves in World Energy Outlook 2015 is that this annual report now discusses “resources that are technically possible to produce” and what proportion of these are proven reserves. When I was working on Chapter 17, The Peak of the Oil Age for my new book a few weeks ago I discussed the difference between technically producible resources and reserves.
(OilPrice.com) The EIA recently published a global oil consumption data sheet that provided a clear picture of where the global oil economy is currently heading. The data revealed that although there had been a substantial oil consumption increase in the Middle East (led by Saudi Arabia), Asia (Led by China) and Oceania, the rest of the world which included Russia , other FSU countries, the U.S., Japan and Europe experienced a consistent decline in their oil consumption rates over the last decade.
(Nikkei) Oil prices remain stuck at low levels, unaffected by the waves of risk washing over the world amid mounting geopolitical tension. What is driving that trend, and how long will it last? The Nikkei Asian Review put these and other questions to Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of research company IHS and a world-renowned expert on oil prices.
(CNBC) Unless the Fed shocks investors with a hawkish tone, oil conceivably could be a bigger factor for credit markets this week than the Fed’s first hike in nine years.
“Credit rating agency Fitch says defaults for oil and gas companies are already at the highest since 1999. Since the start of the third quarter, at least 12 oil and gas companies have defaulted on their debt. The ‘zombies’ bet that by shifting into survival mode they can hang on until oil prices recover, but the outlook is grim.”
Anna Driver and Tracy Rucinski, Reuters, “Zombies Appear in U.S. Oil Fields”
Oil prices tumbled for six straight sessions following the OPEC decision to maintain production levels the week before last. At the close Friday prices were down 11 percent for the week with New York futures closing at $35.62 a barrel and London at $37.93. This is the lowest close for oil futures since the 2008-2009 recession. Adjusting for inflation, oil prices this low were last seen in 2002.
(AP) — Getting paid has always been hard for government contractors in Mexico, but seldom has the problem been so bad, as low oil prices are battering government finances.
(OilPrice.com) The dramatic drop in oil prices has created what are called “zombie” companies , oil companies which can still afford to pay interest on huge debts, but little else. If oil prices stay low, the problem is likely to spread and become an economic zombie apocalypse for much of the industry and the communities and countries that depend on it.
(CNBC) History is repeating itself on Nymex, and although $10 oil looks a long shot, technical analysis indicates that prices have further to fall.
(Bloomberg) Some of the biggest oil explorers in the Western Hemisphere are cutting budgets yet again to conserve cash as a plunge in energy markets shows no signs of abating.
(Bloomberg) In an instant, Chesapeake Energy Corp. will erase the equivalent of 1.1 billion barrels of oil from its books.
Across the American shale patch, companies are being forced to square their reported oil reserves with hard economic reality. After lobbying for rules that let them claim their vast underground potential at the start of the boom, they must now acknowledge what their investors already know: many prospective wells would lose money with oil hovering below $40 a barrel.
(Bloomberg) The Energy Information Administration cut its U.S. crude production outlook for next year as declining prices are prompting shale drillers to put rigs aside. Cheaper gasoline is expected to stoke demand for the motor fuel.
(Bloomberg) Saudi Arabia can’t afford to wait for oil prices to recover and needs to accelerate economic measures to avoid rising unemployment, deficits and debt, McKinsey & Co. Inc. said in a report released Thursday.
(Wall Street Journal) This was supposed to be the year oil prices turned around.
Ten banks surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in March predicted that U.S. crude would average $50 a barrel or better in the fourth quarter. December 2015 futures contracts were selling for $63.82 a year ago.
(Wall Street Journal) The fall of crude prices to six-year lows in recent weeks has pummeled oil-producing countries from Venezuela to Iraq, threatening their ability to keep pumping petroleum and forcing governments to take painful measures to shore up national budgets.
